The recent IED (Improvised Explosive Device) attack targeting Kenya Defense Forces in Lamu, perpetrated by the terrorist group al-shabaab, is not unprecedented. But it exposes the militant group’s growing desperation and dwindling capacity. After years of high-intensity conflict on multiple fronts, al-shabaab is a shadow of its former self. Morale is plummeting and man power is thinning.   According to Somali authorities and African Union, over 1650 militants were neutralized in 2023 alone.

The prevalence of IED use by al-shabaab is largely due to their cost effectiveness and the minimal risks the militants face compared to an open attack on security forces. But their IED strategy hinges on cowardice, planting explosives on public roads, then retreating to record footage for propaganda. For them, every blast is not just an attack, it content. A desperate effort to appear dominant online and lure vulnerable youth into joining their dying cause.

But this illusion is cracking.

Kenyan security infrastructure has undergone rapid transformation to bolster its offensive and defensive capabilities since its war with terrorism begun. Specially trained troops and integration of modern technologies in counter terrorism operations in Boni has created a disproportionate balance of power forcing al-shabaab to resort to IEDs. While the vast Kenyan-Somali border previously offered an easy incursion and escape route, strategic placement of security camps and use of airborne surveillance platforms to augment patrol teams has considerably diminished the terrorist ease of movement. 

The result? Al-Shabaab’s operational reach in Kenya has been severely crippled. Fewer militants are crossing the border. Fewer attacks are succeeding and more communities are growing resilient in the face of radical influence. This recent IED attack, then, is not a sign of strength, it’s a dying gasp.

Backed into a corner and outmatched on every front, al-Shabaab is leaning on a weapon of last resort. The group’s reliance on low-cost, high-noise tactics only confirms what the battlefield already knows: The end is near.