The head of Kenya’s National Intelligence Service hit media cycles over statements of the increasing threats the country faces from incursions of non-state actors from neighboring countries of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda. While this revelation shocked many, keen observers and security pundits have been warning of the deteriorating security situation fueled by terrorist groups like al-shabaab and the impacts of ongoing conflicts in South Sudan among other countries of the horn of Africa. Small arms proliferation in the region have exacerbated insecurity, with armed cattle rustling bandits wreaking havoc in local communities and daring to challenge government security infrastructure. ‘Big power’ geopolitics and proxy conflicts have seen a sharp incline of foreign mercenaries’ operations further destabilizing the security balance in the region.

The security situation in the horn of Africa is growing increasingly complex. Old rivalries are flaring up and new alliances forming as countries endeavor to secure their national interests. The controversial January 1^st 2024 MOU signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland allegedly with the blessing of the UAE, angered Mogadishu. To counter the Ethiopians and strengthen its position, Somalia sought closer military collaborations with Egypt. Djibouti also feeling threatened by the Ethiopia’s MOU has sought closer security cooperation with Somalia.

On its part, Egypt has an ongoing low intensity conflict with Ethiopia over the latter’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile which Egypt considers an existential threat. Similarly, Sudan’s conflict with Ethiopia over the Al-Fashaga disputed land along its border with Ethiopia has seen it conduct military drills alongside Egypt as the two nations cement military collaboration agreements. The deployment of several thousand Egyptian troops to Somalia naturally has Ethiopia up in arms. This fall out has greatly destabilized the unity of the African Union force in Somalia which has been engaged in counter terrorism operations against al-shabaab for close to two decades now. 

Middle Eastern powers like the United Arab Emirates have on several occasions been accused of using proxies in the region to consolidate influence and protect its economic interests. Military efforts by UAE have focused on combating jihadist terrorism, defense cooperation with African states, and involvement in conflict zones such as Libya and Sudan. The UAE has supported allies in countering jihadi groups such as al-shabaab, ISIS and the Muslim brotherhood as well as anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden and western Indian Ocean. Emirati military cooperation with Ethiopia for instance, shifts the balance of power in the region which has forced new regional alliances in response.

While foreign interventions may appear noble, they are not void of self-interests. Foreign governments with ‘deep pockets’ buy political patronage by corrupting local political players. These alliances rarely benefit host nations in the horn of Africa, but provide avenues for the benefactors to reap economic profits or wage a proxy war against a rival state. At face value, the horn may appear to be on the brink of war. However, most of these conflicts have historical backgrounds with some dating back to the colonial era. One could argue that this military and diplomatic posturing currently witnessed are symptoms of flash points in long standing conflicts and may not be alarming just yet.

Non-state actors like al-shabaab have taken advantage of Somali land claims in parts of Kenya’s north eastern regions to wage a guerilla war against the country’s security and government structures. A side from notable attacks in the capital Nairobi in past years, Kenya has largely succeeded in denying the militant group freedom of operation within its territory. However, the group still conducts sporadic cross border incursions along the border regions.

The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) designated a terrorist organization by Ethiopia, has taken refuge in remote border areas of Marsabit and Isiolo in Kenya as it wages a guerilla war against the Ethiopian government. OLA engages in arms and narcotics trafficking to funds its insurgency. The social economic decay from drug addiction among Kenya’s youth and the blatant violation of the country’s territorial integrity forced the government to launch Operation Ondoa Jangili to uproot the militant group from its borders. After successfully dismantling several OLA command, logistics and training makeshift camps within its territory, the Kenyan government appears hell-bent on unraveling their narcotics network.

Weapons proliferation owing to active conflicts in South Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia have aggravated the cattle rustling menace in Kenya. These tribal bandits armed with automatic weapons, far removed from previous tactics of bow and arrows, commit murder callously before crossing the porous borders to Uganda or South Sudan with stolen herds of cattle. The Karamojong of Uganda and the Turkana of Kenya, both pastoral communities, have a history of reciprocal cattle raids. The availability of small arms however, has resulted in increased incidents of gross human rights violations, rape, torture and wanton loss of property.

Security challenges within the horn of Africa states and her neighbors are transnational in nature. Diplomacy and consensus building among state actors is crucial in creating shared understanding and instituting long lasting security measures to handle transnational criminal elements. Bodies like the African Union must do more to foster an environment for peace building and good governance as per its mandate. Importantly, political actors must uphold state sovereignty, shun corruption and the culture of great power patronage.